Labor leads in latest poll

Labor is leading the coalition in the latest opinion poll, which also shows Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s popularity is growing.


On a two-party preferred basis, the ALP is in front of the coalition 53 per cent to 47 per cent, according to the Nielsen poll published by Fairfax on Saturday.

Last week’s Nielsen poll had the Coalition ahead 51-49.

The turnaround comes after a four per cent rise in Labor’s primary vote to 40 per cent.

The poll shows the Greens vote remains unchanged on 12 per cent and the gap for preferred prime minister has widened in Ms Gillard’s favour.

She is now ahead of Opposition Leader Tony Abbott by 14 percentage points.

In a separate poll, published in The Weekend Australian on Saturday, Labor is facing the loss of a series of seats in Queensland and NSW.

But it also shows the government will likely be re-elected by winning back coalition seats in Victoria.

The Newspoll survey found up to seven marginal Labor seats are at risk in Queensland, and up to five seats are at risk in NSW, including John Howard’s former seat of Bennelong, won in 2007 by Labor’s Maxine McKew.

But in Victoria, a strong swing towards the Labor government since the 2007 election puts up to three coalition seats at risk.

The Newspoll found personal support for Ms Gillard is strongest in Victoria, with a satisfaction rating in the state’s marginals of 50 per cent and a lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister of 56-34 per cent.

In Queensland, more people are dissatisfied with Ms Gillard than satisfied — 46 per cent to 41 per cent — and satisfaction with the Opposition Leader is virtually equal in NSW and Queensland.

A third poll, conducted by Galaxy Research for News Ltd, reveals low-level support for Labor in western Sydney.

About one in 10 voters in the region’s key marginal seats of Hughes, Lindsay, Macarthur and Greenway believe the ALP deserves to be re-elected.

Eight-six per cent of the 800 respondents said Labor does not deserve to be re-elected, while 52 percent said it’s better than the alternative.

Ms Gillard, however, appears to be winning people over more than Mr Abbott when it comes to who would better serve the interests of western Sydney.

Overall, 45 per cent consider Ms Gillard more impressive compared to 36 per cent who prefer Mr Abbott.

On the question of who is more trustworthy, Ms Gillard is well in front on 42 per cent compared to Mr Abbott on 33 per cent.

The Galaxy poll, published in Saturday’s Daily Telegraph, was conducted on August 11 and 12.

It shows an eight per cent swing in the primary vote against the government since the last election — with Labor struggling at 37 per cent to the coalition’s 45.

But when preference flows based on the redistributed election results from 2007 are factored in, the swing falls to 3.9 per cent, with the coalition ahead on 51/49, the Telegraph says.

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